The smallest measurable unit of time in the universe is held to be the “New York Minute” – the approximate amount of time between a traffic light turning green, and the person in the car behind you honking their horn.  However, I believe there may be a new contender – let’s call it the “Euro Media Millisecond.” This new measure would represent the elapsed time between media reports of the solution to one problem facing the Eurozone, and the announcement of (and overreaction to) the next crisis.  Attempting to second-guess the direction of the short-term hysteria in the Eurozone seems like a fool’s game at present, so we’ll do the opposite; by looking at one of the long-run trends in the United States of America that, in my view, bodes well for the future.

The trend is not an arcane secret known only to Nobel-prize winning economists and statisticians, discovered through years of trawling through data in dusty libraries. Rather it’s well known across the US, and indeed most of the world; it has served as the backbone of novels, plays, films, songs and most importantly, real life. I’m talking about The American Dream (one must always capitalise it).

Of course, you’ll have seen/read/heard the story a thousand times, so feel free to delete as appropriate. A hard-up boy/girl in a small town/inner city ghetto has a talent/good idea/point to prove, and by working hard they achieve fame/fortune/save a dying relative/fall in love/all of the previous and live happily ever after…

Casting a quick glance back through US history, it is clear that this ideal of striving for something better has pervaded American culture from the very beginning. In 1774 Lord Dunmore, the Governor of Virginia, noted the cultural tendency to “for ever imagine the Lands further off are still better than those upon which they are already settled; if they attained Paradise, they would move on if they heard of a better place further west.” The American Revolution put a temporary halt to this expansion, but by 1800 the inhabited frontier was moving slowly towards the Pacific once more – fuelled by the promise of fertile, unclaimed land, and the chance to become rich.

Then, in January 1848, Mr James W. Marshall discovered gold in the hills of El Dorado County, California, searing The American Dream across the collective imagination of the burgeoning United States.  Since that moment, the notion can be traced – with varying levels of intensity – up to the present day.

1848-55 saw the gold rush, putting wealth within the grasp of anyone willing to travel far and work hard. Western America blossomed, but lacked easy contact with civilisation.  The solution to this problem was to embrace the cutting edge technology of the time – railroads. The Transcontinental Railroad was completed in 1869, with a host of others following soon after. Previously, travelling from the Atlantic to the Pacific had taken six months or more; once the last spike was driven, the journey took one week. Americans flooded East, West, North and South, wherever they could lay tracks to transport their goods. Farms, mines, lumberyards, whole towns sprang up in previously deserted prairies, as entire families sought to improve their lives.

By the end of the 19^th century, American manufacturing had taken off, and papers were filled with examples of “rags-to-riches” stories (not always strictly legitimate) – Cornelius Vanderbilt, John D. Rockefeller and Jay Gould all came from humble beginnings to become some of the richest men in history.

In between two world wars, the banking and oil industries kept the ball rolling (and those bootleggers becoming wealthy through flouting Prohibition laws kept the drink flowing); if you were smart and diligent, you could be rich. Following the Second World War, the US economy grew at 3.5% a year – the proportion of those living below the poverty line halved.  In more recent times, after the end of the Cold War, America saw the Tech-Media-Telecoms boom, arguably still continuing today despite a big hiccup in 2000.

My somewhat laboriously arrived at point is that The American Dream has driven the growth of the US since the very beginning, and I do not believe it has lost force. There may be periods of inactivity between the Dream-chasing times, but they keep returning. Indeed, the global perception of America as a land of opportunity has strengthened – between 2000 and 2010, 14 million people have immigrated and become naturalized citizens.  I’m fairly sure that we won’t see another gold rush or railroad boom – those bases seem to have been covered.  However, with the world facing new challenges – 7 billion people, resource scarcity and so on – I’d be incredibly surprised if the population of the US didn’t find a way to capitalise on providing the solution. I suspect it’ll be in the sustainable area, with an emphasis on preserving that all-important quality of life.  Whether its solar panels in the Nevada desert (or perhaps just turning off the Vegas lights…), civilising Mars or a new approach to farming, there’ll be something that can be improved or invented.

The current lull in activity is, to my mind, like a top football team being a goal down at half time; a temporary setback, with an entire half ahead of them to rectify the situation and draw on their talent and skill.  The whistle may just have blown for the start of the second half though – as the NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism has been creeping upwards once more following its trough in 2008, and mini-trough this summer.  American entrepreneurs have a tendency to accept government support when its offered, and ignore the politicians for the rest of the time – exactly what’s needed in the current environment. What’s more, they’re not scared to fall short of their goals, get up and keep chasing. The Great Gatsby ends by highlighting the American belief “in the orgastic* future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that’s no matter – tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms further…and one fine morning –” If that remains as true today as it did it the 1920’s (which I believe it does), we shouldn’t write America off just yet.

*Fitzgerald made this word up – it’s commonly held to mean something like “promising and fulfilling”

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And finally… We’ve all been there. You’re abroad, you’re in trouble and you don’t speak the language. Luckily, as Brits, we used to own quite a lot of the planet, so there’s usually a British Embassy, High Commission or Consulate to turn to. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office can issue emergency passports, provide legal aid and offer medical assistance. However, not everyone understands the purpose of the FCO’s presence abroad; it has just released a list of requests that fall outside its remit. These include:

• Someone in Spain asking for Prince Charles’ shoe size, in order to send him an appropriate gift.
• Someone else in Spain asking for Phil Collins’ home phone number.
• Someone in Greece asking how to build a chicken coop in his garden (insert own joke about coming home to roost/flown the coop/broken eggs etc etc).
• Someone in Malaga asking for restaurants with availability for Christmas Day.
• A man (location unknown) asking embassy staff to contact his dominatrix, as she’d left him stranded at the airport…

Terrible service – what do we pay these civil servants for anyway?

Justin will be back on duty next week and in the meantime, have a good week.

Ben Kumar
Junior Research Analyst