Jasmine Birtles
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Nike Stock Forecast October 2026: What’s Happened to The Sportswear Giant?
Moneymagpie Team
6th Oct 2026
It is one of the most recognisable brands on the planet, but its recent share price tells a very different story. Nike (NYSE: NKE) reported results on 1 October 2026, and the shares gapped down the next day, opening at $32.55 after closing at $35.15, according to MarketBeat. That leaves the stock down around 42% so far this year and roughly 80% below its November 2021 peak of $177.51.
So what went wrong, what are analysts predicting, and is there a Nike stock forecast that makes sense for UK beginners?
What happened to Nike stock? The latest results
Nike’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2027 (its quarter to the end of August) were a mixed bag. The headline numbers, from Nike’s own results release:
- Revenue: $11.2 billion, down 4% (down 5% when currency effects are stripped out). Yahoo Finance noted this missed the $11.32 billion analysts expected.
- Profit: Earnings per share (EPS), a company’s profit divided by its number of shares, were $0.48, beating the 43 cents analysts expected. Net income was about $0.7 billion, down 2%.
- Margins: Gross margin, the share of sales left after making the products, rose 60 basis points to 42.8%. (A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.)
- Nike Direct (its own stores and apps): down 8% to $4.1 billion, with Nike Digital down 13%.
- Converse: down 28% to $263 million.
On the face of it, beating profit forecasts sounds good. So why did the shares sink? The answer is the outlook.
Why did Nike shares fall? It is all about the guidance
Guidance is a company’s own forecast for the year ahead, and investors often care about it more than last quarter’s numbers. Nike said it expects revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage in fiscal 2027, and adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35. That excludes about $0.15 per share of restructuring costs.
That EPS range is well below what the market wanted. MarketBeat says analysts were expecting about $1.66, and StockTitan puts the consensus at $1.61 and says the range sat below every estimate compiled by Nasdaq.
China is the biggest worry. Greater China revenue fell 22% (26% currency-neutral) to $1.18 billion, per Nike’s release and Yahoo Finance, which StockTitan says accounts for roughly two-thirds of the total revenue decline. Elsewhere, North America grew 2%, while EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) fell 5%.
What is “Pace”, Nike’s new plan?
CEO Elliott Hill says the “Sport Offense” strategy is driving progress in Nike’s performance business, and the company has introduced a new programme called Pace to scale that up. Pace is also a cost-cutting programme: Nike expects about $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031, with around $1.0 billion of pre-tax charges, mostly severance, including $0.3 billion already recognised in fiscal 2026 and another $0.3 billion expected in fiscal 2027.
Citigroup’s take, reported by Stocktwits, is that Nike is “turning into a cost-cutting story” and does not deserve a premium valuation versus rivals. In other words, the market wants to see sales growth, not just savings.
Nike stock forecast: what are analysts saying?
After the results, several Wall Street firms cut their price targets. A price target is where an analyst thinks the share could be in about 12 months. These are opinions, not promises.
| Analyst | Rating and target | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BTIG | Buy, $50 | Cut from $55 |
| Robert W. Baird | Neutral, $36 | Cut from $44 |
| Citigroup | Neutral, $32 | Cut from $39 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral, $30 | Cut from $38 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight, $30 | Cut from $40 |
| Bank of America | Underperform, $24 | Cut from $30 |
MarketBeat shows an overall consensus rating of “hold” across 38 analysts it tracks (1 strong buy, 9 buy, 20 hold and 8 sell). It quotes an average target of $43.77, but that average may still include older, higher targets that have not been updated, so treat it with caution. The spread of targets, from $24 to $50, shows how divided opinion is.
The dividend question
Nike pays a quarterly dividend of $0.41 ($1.64 a year), which MarketBeat puts at a yield of about 4.9% at the new, lower share price. Nike’s results release shows it paid $610 million in dividends in the quarter, up 3%.
Here is the catch. StockTitan calculates that, against the new EPS guidance, the annual payout would be about 121% to 143% of expected earnings, meaning Nike would pay out more than it earns. That does not mean a cut is coming, and we have no inside information, but it is something income investors are likely to debate. A very high yield can sometimes be a warning sign rather than a bargain.
Bull case vs bear case
The bull case
Nike beat profit expectations, expanded its gross margin, grew in North America and cut inventory by 3% to $7.8 billion. The shares are far below their peak and trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 16 (MarketBeat), cheaper than the brand’s history. If China stabilises and Pace works, the recovery could be sharp.
The bear case
Revenue is shrinking, guidance missed every estimate, China is falling fast and the CEO has acknowledged the turnaround needs more time. Citi sees cost cuts rather than growth, and the dividend looks stretched. Cheap shares can always get cheaper.
Buying Nike shares from the UK: what to know
Nike is listed in New York, so UK investors buy it in dollars through a platform that offers US shares. That means possible FX (currency conversion) fees and exchange-rate swings. US dividends may also have withholding tax taken, so check your platform’s tax paperwork and rules. You can hold US shares in a Stocks & Shares ISA on many platforms, and our platform guides compare the costs.
What to do next
- Don’t buy just because it is “cheap”. A falling share price can reflect real problems. Understand why it fell first.
- Read the source. Nike publishes its results release on its investor relations site. Read the outlook section.
- Watch the next catalysts. The next results, any updates on China, and the dividend decision are the big ones.
- Keep single-stock bets small. One company can be very volatile. Many beginners prefer diversified funds as their core, with individual shares as a small extra.
- Know your costs. Check FX fees and dividend tax on your platform before you buy.
The bottom line
The Nike stock forecast for October 2026 is unusually split: some analysts still see a recovery story, while others see a cost-cutting company with a shrinking top line. Neither side can know for sure. If you are tempted, keep it small, do your homework and remember that even great brands can be poor investments at the wrong price.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not regulated financial advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any share. Investing involves risk and you could get back less than you put in. Individual shares can be especially volatile. Forecasts and price targets are opinions and often turn out wrong. Prices and figures come from Nike’s own results release and public reports published up to 5 October 2026 and change constantly. US shares are priced in dollars, so currency moves can affect returns. Do your own research or speak to a regulated financial adviser before investing.
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