Jasmine Birtles
Your money-making expert. Financial journalist, TV and radio personality.
Gold Price Nears $4,000! How Long Can the Bull Run Last?
Ruby Layram
6th Oct 2025
Wow. Just when you thought gold had been pushed to its limits, the price has leapt toward that powerful $4,000 per ounce territory. It’s the kind of headline that gets even cautious savers raising an eyebrow and wondering, is this just hype? Or is something real happening?
In this article, I want to dig into what’s driving this surge, where the fuel could run out, and how long this bull run might realistically last.
I also want to take this golden opportunity (no pun intended!), to welcome you to our upcoming Gold webinar! It’s free to join and will teach you everything you need to know about Gold’s price and the political drivers that could sway it!
What’s Behind the Gold Price Surge?
First, let’s not pretend this jump happened randomly. There are several forces pushing gold upward, and many of them are interconnected.
1. Rate cuts and falling real yields
One of the biggest contributors is the widely expected loosening of U.S. monetary policy. With inflation showing signs of stickiness but growth softening, markets are increasingly pricing in more rate cuts from the Fed.
That tends to lower “real yields” (i.e. interest rates minus inflation), which makes non-yielding assets like gold look more attractive.
In simpler terms, if bonds or cash pay you less (after inflation), gold doesn’t look quite as unattractive by comparison.
2. Safe-haven demand
Geopolitics, domestic instability, and fears about central bank independence have all pushed more money into “safe haven” assets, and gold has long been the go-to.
In particular, worries about political interference in central banks (e.g. attempts to influence rate policy) have made many investors worried and gold often gets the benefit of the doubt.
This is because Gold tends to stand strong when economies are wobbly, which makes it an attractive place to store your wealth. Gold is independent from central banks and governments. So piling up Gold bars under your bed might not be a bad shout if things go south!
Read more: Why Gold has become a hedge for middle-class investors
3. Central banks and institutional buying
It’s not just retail investors piling in. Central banks continue to add gold to reserves as part of reserve diversification away from U.S. dollar or bond-heavy portfolios. That institutional demand adds a structural support layer.
When big institutions buy, it’s harder to reverse a trend quickly, they tend to hold rather than trade.
4. Technical breakouts & momentum
From a charting perspective (if you want to get technical!), gold has cleared several resistance zones and is riding momentum. These breakouts tend to draw in momentum traders and reinforce upward pressure.
Also, inflows into gold ETFs and mining stocks are reinforcing the narrative that “everyone wants in.” All of these factors are feeding off each other—lower real yields support safe-asset demand, which gives confidence to institutionals, which in turn strengthens momentum.
The Risks To Look Out For
Alright, let’s get a bit realistic here. This rally isn’t bulletproof. Here are the main risks that could derail or slow the run:
1. A surprise hawkish pivot by central banks
If inflation refuses to cool or shows a resurgence, central banks may need to halt cuts or even raise rates again! That would boost real yields, strengthen the dollar, and make gold less appealing.
Also, any sign that central bankers are losing independence (or reacting too slowly) could spook markets and hurt sentiment.
2. Strong economic rebound
If global growth surprises to the upside, investors might rotate out of gold and into equities or ‘cyclical stocks‘. In that world, safe-haven assets would lose their appeal.
3. Dollar strength
Gold is priced in dollars. If the U.S. dollar rallies sharply, gold becomes more expensive (in foreign currencies), which can reduce demand and create downward pressure.
4. Profit-taking and technical resistance
When prices run very high, some investors will inevitably lock in gains. That could provoke sharp pullbacks, especially if momentum weakens or sentiment shifts.
Technical resistance zones (psychological levels like $4,000) may also act as barriers unless there’s fresh conviction.
5. Policy or regulatory shocks
Unexpected regulation (e.g. on gold trading, taxes, ownership) or geopolitical shocks could spook markets.
Also, if governments start pushing alternative “safe” assets (e.g., digital reserves, sovereign bonds with guarantees), gold could face competition it hasn’t felt in a while.
Gold itself is also vulnerable to sentiment; if people begin to believe this run is overdone, a whip-saw can happen fast.
How Long Might It Last? (And what’s a reasonable target?)
So, based on all this, how long could the bull run continue? And how high might it go?
The bullish scenario…
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Some forecasts suggest gold could cross or exceed $4,000 per ounce in the near term, especially if central banks remain active buyers and monetary easing continues.
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J.P. Morgan expects prices to average $3,675 in Q4 2025 and potentially reach $4,000 by around mid-2026.
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Gold’s own research suggests that under a “bull case” environment (rising risk, sustained demand), an additional 10–15% upside is realistic in H2 2025.
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The narrative that we may be in the early innings of a long multi-year bull run (rather than just a short squeeze) has gained traction among analysts.
So, in the bullish scenario, we could see the run extend into much of 2026, with upside “spikes” to $4,200 or more, before the air begins to thin!
The moderate scenario…
More conservatively, gold could continue to trend upward through 2025, but with periodic pullbacks, consolidation phases, and volatility. It may attempt to reach $4,000 (or cross briefly) but not depart wildly from that band until macro trends give more clarity.
In this case, gold may average somewhere between $3,800–$4,000 toward the end of 2025, with corrections along the way.
The bear or reversion scenario…
If some of the risks mentioned above materialise, hawkish central banks, surging growth, strong dollar, we could see a meaningful correction.
Prices might test support zones (e.g. in the $3,400–$3,600 range, depending on how extended the run becomes) or even pull back to earlier trend lines.
In that scenario, the run to $4,000 may prove more of a “blip” than a lasting shift.
What Should Smart Investors Do Now?
Here are a few tactical tips for those watching this rally:
- Don’t bet the farm: Even in a strong bull run, gold behaves differently from stocks. It’s better as a component (hedge, ballast) than the core of your portfolio.
- Pace your entry: Use dollar-cost averaging or limit orders rather than rushing in at peak prices.
- Watch real yields & central bank behaviour: These remain the single biggest variables.
- Set your risk thresholds: Define exit or trimming levels ahead of time.
- Don’t ignore scenario planning: Be ready for both upside and pullbacks.
- Use complementary assets: Consider pairing gold with other diversifiers (e.g. inflation-linked bonds, commodities, real assets) to smooth volatility.
Final thoughts
Yes, pushing toward $4,000 per ounce? That’s headline territory, and given what we’re seeing, it’s well within reach if key conditions hold. But gold doesn’t always follow a straight line, and it can be unforgiving when sentiment shifts.
I recommend holding onto your gold and gradually increasing your stake, alongside other investments to diversify your portfolio.
As always, diversification is key, and you should never underestimate the power of spreading your bets!
If you would like to learn more about the price potential of Gold (directly from experts!), sign up to our free Gold webinar, which will be taking place on the 9th of October 2025.
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Disclaimer: MoneyMagpie is not a licensed financial advisor and therefore information found here, including opinions, commentary, suggestions or strategies, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only. This should not be considered as financial advice. Anyone thinking of investing should conduct their own due diligence. When investing your capital is at risk.
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